Since I haven’t been writing about a lot lately, I thought I would get in my VP thoughts before Obama makes them moot.
If Obama selected Hillary Clinton, he would make a lot of members of the Democratic Party happy – most of them over 50. He would make a lot of under-40 members unhappy. Most of those between 25-40 would still vote for him, but a significant number of those under 25 would stay home.
If he doesn’t pick Hillary Clinton (regardless of who he picks from those that have been mentioned in the press as being considered) Most of those over 50 who would have thought he made a great choice with Clinton, will think he made the wrong choice. And those under 40 may not be thrilled with the choice he makes, but they will agree ‘at least he didn’t make the horribly wrong choice of Clinton.”
I think Obama can win either way. He regains the older generation he is struggling with now by choosing Clinton, so if the youth stay home (like they usually do) it won’t matter. But otherwise, I am confident he can change the demographics of the vote. (And all the polls that currently show McCain and Obama tied are assuming the demographics remain consistent with the past.)
I want him to win it by not choosing Clinton – but I am under 50. The age-chasm is interesting. I haven’t seen it before to this degree.